China Wheat Production Estimates Reduced Due to Persistent Soil Moisture Deficit & Low Rainfall
China’s wheat production estimate for the 2025/26 season is reduced by nearly half a million tonnes compared to the previous estimate by Octopusbot driven by drier-than-expected weather in May and continued soil moisture deficits across major wheat-producing regions. While sown area remains stable compared to last year, persistent dryness and high temperatures have impacted key producing regions in the East, South-Central, Northwest, and Southwest. While parts of North China benefit from above-average moisture, the broader seasonal forecast points to near to below-median rainfall heading into the critical months of June and July, weighing on production potential.
Key Drivers Impacting Wheat Production
The decline in Canada’s canola production estimates is driven by these significant factors:
- Soil Moisture: Soil moisture ranked 22nd driest out of the past 25 years in May 2025. The East, South-Central, Northwest, and Southwest provinces, covering 82% of total wheat area, recorded severe deficits, ranking between 21st and 25th driest. North China provinces (13% of area) showed a surplus, ranking 2nd wettest.
- Precipitation: May 2025 recorded near-median precipitation at 93% of the median.
- Temperature: High temperatures were recorded during May 2025 ranking 4th highest in the past 25 years.
- Planted Areas: Wheat sown area remains stable year-on-year, based on data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
Seasonal Outlook: Regional Variability in Rainfall Forecast
June 2025 precipitation is forecast to be near the median at 97% of the median, with near to above-median levels expected in the East and South-Central provinces, which account for 68% of total wheat area. Below-median rainfall is forecast in the remaining regions, covering approximately 60% of the area.
From July onwards, rainfall is expected to remain near to below the median at 95% overall.
Impact on Wheat Yields
Wheat yields for the 2025/26 season are expected to be slightly lower than last season but remain above the five-year average. The positive rainfall forecast for June may support yield conditions across key wheat producing regions.
Octopusbot’s Forecast Accuracy
Octopusbot continues to demonstrate strong performance in anticipating market-moving production trends well ahead of traditional agencies. Timely and accurate forecasting is essential to mitigate risks with confidence and make smarter, data-driven decisions. With early forecasts, agribusinesses can stay ahead of market shifts and maximize profits with accuracy.
In February 2024, Octopusbot predicted the season’s production within 95% accuracy range, 9 months before the final estimate and 3 months before USDA, with a difference of 2.1% on the final estimate.
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