US Corn Estimates Rise Due to Higher Planted Areas and Yield Gains in Southern States
U.S. corn production estimates for the 2025/26 season indicate an upward shift this season, largely driven by an increase in planted areas and yield improvements across key Southern states. Despite dry conditions and warmer-than-average temperatures during March, these gains have supported a stronger production outlook. Improved rainfall forecasts for April and a stable seasonal outlook are expected to support the positive outlook. Octopusbot’s production estimate sits higher than the USDA Grains and Oilseed Outlook released at the end of February.
Key Drivers Impacting Corn Production
The decline in Brazil’s soybean production is driven by these significant weather factors:
- Soil Moisture: Soil moisture declined, ranking 20th driest out of the past 24 years. The deficit was concentrated in the West, South, and West North Central states, where levels were below 95% of the median.
- Precipitation: March 2025 experienced below-median precipitation, reaching 31% of the median.
- Temperature: Above-median temperatures were recorded during March 2025.
- Planted Areas: Planted corn areas increased according to the USDA Prospective Plantings report.
Seasonal Outlook: Regional Variability in Rainfall Forecast
The precipitation outlook for April 2025 indicates above-median rainfall in the South, Northeast, and Midwest states. In contrast, below-median rainfall is expected in the West North Central and Western states.
From May to September 2025, the seasonal precipitation outlook remains close to the median (103% of the median) across major corn-producing regions.
Impact on Corn Yields
Corn production for the 2025/26 season is projected to increase compared to last year, exceeding both the USDA’s estimates and the five-year average.
Yield gains have been recorded in the South, Northeast, and West, contributing significantly to the overall rise in production. However, these improvements are partially offset by yield reductions in the Midwest and West North Central states.
The improved rainfall outlook for April and a near-median seasonal forecast may provide favourable conditions for yield improvement across key areas.
Octopusbot’s Forecast Accuracy
Accurate forecasting is critical for planning, pricing, and managing risk in the volatile grain markets. Octopusbot continues to demonstrate strong performance in anticipating market-moving production trends well ahead of traditional agencies.
In April 2024, Octopusbot predicted within 95% accuracy range that the season’s trend would be higher than USDA’s estimate, 7 months before the final estimate and 1 month before USDA, with a difference of 2% on the final estimate.
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