Rise in France Wheat Production Estimates Supports EU-27 Wheat Production Increase
The EU-27 soft wheat and durum wheat production estimate for the 2025/26 season has increased compared to the previous outlook, supported by higher projections in France, Poland, Spain, Hungary, and Romania, and partially offset by reductions in Italy, Bulgaria and Greece.
France’s wheat production estimate has seen the most significant upward revision among member states, compared to both COCERAL and previous estimates by Octopusbot driven by a positive rainfall outlook from June to September.
Key Drivers Impacting Wheat Production
The decline in Canada’s canola production estimates is driven by these significant factors:
- Soil Moisture: A deficit was recorded across key wheat-producing countries including France, Germany, the UK, and Czechia. France’s soft wheat regions experienced particularly dry conditions in May 2025, ranking 21st driest out of the past 24 years, with soil moisture levels at 83% of the median, though the overall EU-27 soil moisture ranking improved from 17th to 15th of the past 24 years.
- Precipitation: May 2025 recorded below-median precipitation across all EU-27+UK countries, reaching just 49% of the median.
- Temperature:France experienced above-median temperatures in May 2025, in contrast to most other countries that recorded cooler conditions. The EU-27 mean temperature ranked 19th highest in the past 24 years.
- Planted Areas: Total planted areas remain unchanged from the previous estimate, based on COCERAL’s latest update and local agency data.
Seasonal Outlook: Regional Variability in Rainfall Forecast
Rainfall across the EU-27 is forecast to remain close to or above the median from June to September 2025. June precipitation is expected to reach 101% of the median, with July and August forecasts at 98% and 102% respectively.
France shows a similar trend, with near-median rainfall in June followed by slightly above-median levels in the following months.
Impact on Wheat Yields
Wheat yields for the 2025/26 season are expected to increase compared to last year and remain above the five-year average. The latest yield estimate for soft wheat is higher than the previous estimate, supported by season-to-date conditions (96% of median) and a positive rainfall outlook from June to September. Durum yields are also projected to improve, marking the highest historical level, with gains in Italy, Greece, and Spain.
Octopusbot’s Forecast Accuracy
Octopusbot’s early forecasts empower agribusinesses to respond faster to market changes, make data-driven decisions, and maximise profits with accuracy.
In April 2024, Octopusbot predicted the season’s trend within 95% accuracy range, 6 months before the final estimate and 4 months before USDA, with a difference of 3.3% on the final estimate.
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